Discounted Cash Flow

Natwest Group Plc. ADR

NWG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from GBP to USD

⚠ Cash flow predictability 38/100 (unstable) — FCF YoY std dev 91%, net income 56% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $21.6b $-5.5b $197.4m -25.6%
2017 $21.7b (0.7%) $3.0b (154.9%) $3.0b (1433.6%) 13.9% (154.4%)
2018 $22.5b (3.7%) $4.5b (50.0%) $-338.0m (-111.2%) 20.2% (44.7%) $0.14
2019 $24.9b (10.6%) $5.7b (26.0%) $-4.2b (-1149.2%) 23.0% (13.9%) $0.26 (92.6%)
2020 $14.5b (-41.6%) $-474.6m (-108.3%) $-474.6m (88.8%) -3.3% (-114.2%) $-6.20 (-2484.6%)
2021 $14.0b (-3.9%) $5.5b (1248.7%) $5.5b (1248.7%) 39.0% (1295.4%) $0.25 (104.1%)
2022 $18.1b (29.1%) $6.9b (27.3%) $-61.7b (-1232.2%) 38.4% (-1.4%) $0.34 (33.1%)
2023 $20.0b (10.7%) $8.4b (20.4%) $-26.8b (56.5%) 41.8% (8.7%) $0.48 (41.9%)
2024 $19.8b (-0.9%) $8.4b (0.3%) $-1.3b (95.2%) 42.3% (1.2%) $0.54 (11.6%)
2025 $22.5b (13.3%) $10.4b (24.4%) $8.8b (787.8%) 46.4% (9.8%) $0.68 (27.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in GBP. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model