Discounted Cash Flow
Oshkosh Corp.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 7.0% (2022) → 16.6% (2023) → 11.1% (2024) → -2.9% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -2.9% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $936.3m | $32.3m | $72.3m | 3.4% | $2.94 |
| 2017 | $1.0b (8.8%) | $42.6m (32.0%) | $24.0m (-66.9%) | 4.2% (21.3%) | $3.82 (29.9%) |
| 2018 | $1.1b (12.8%) | $70.4m (65.2%) | $50.8m (112.2%) | 6.1% (46.4%) | $6.38 (67.0%) |
| 2019 | $1.2b (8.8%) | $86.4m (22.8%) | $62.7m (23.4%) | 6.9% (12.9%) | — |
| 2020 | $1.0b (-18.2%) | $48.4m (-44.0%) | $32.1m (-48.9%) | 4.7% (-31.5%) | — |
| 2021 | $1.2b (12.8%) | $70.5m (45.7%) | $166.6m (419.6%) | 6.1% (29.1%) | — |
| 2022 | $1.2b (7.0%) | $25.9m (-63.2%) | $49.5m (-70.3%) | 2.1% (-65.6%) | — |
| 2023 | $1.4b (16.6%) | $89.2m (243.9%) | $40.9m (-17.3%) | 6.2% (194.9%) | — |
| 2024 | $1.6b (11.1%) | $101.6m (13.9%) | $40.1m (-1.9%) | 6.4% (2.6%) | — |
| 2025 | $1.6b (-2.9%) | $96.5m (-5.0%) | $92.1m (129.7%) | 6.2% (-2.2%) | — |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.