Discounted Cash Flow
Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 8.8% (2022) → 6.2% (2023) → 3.1% (2024) → 4.4% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now 4.4% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $27.2b | $463.6m | $2.2m | 1.7% | $3.99 |
| 2017 | $28.9b (6.3%) | $829.2m (78.9%) | $676.0k (-68.8%) | 2.9% (68.2%) | $7.14 (78.9%) |
| 2018 | $30.8b (6.5%) | $636.8m (-23.2%) | $676.0k (0.0%) | 2.1% (-27.9%) | $5.53 (-22.5%) |
| 2019 | $31.3b (1.7%) | $589.2m (-7.5%) | $405.6k (-40.0%) | 1.9% (-9.0%) | $5.28 (-4.5%) |
| 2020 | $27.6b (-11.8%) | $734.9m (24.7%) | $405.6k (0.0%) | 2.7% (41.4%) | $6.74 (27.7%) |
| 2021 | $34.5b (25.0%) | $1.6b (118.5%) | $1.8m (333.3%) | 4.6% (74.8%) | $14.89 (120.9%) |
| 2022 | $37.6b (8.8%) | $1.9b (16.2%) | $1.6b (90400.0%) | 5.0% (6.7%) | $18.55 (24.6%) |
| 2023 | $39.9b (6.2%) | $1.4b (-23.7%) | $1.0b (-35.5%) | 3.6% (-28.1%) | $15.50 (-16.4%) |
| 2024 | $41.2b (3.1%) | $1.2b (-12.8%) | $1.2b (12.3%) | 3.0% (-15.4%) | $13.74 (-11.4%) |
| 2025 | $43.0b (4.4%) | $1.3b (1.8%) | $879.5m (-23.7%) | 2.9% (-2.5%) | $14.13 (2.8%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in GBP. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.