Discounted Cash Flow

Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. ADR

PBR-A · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from BRL to USD (2 ordinary shares per ADR)

⚠ Cash flow predictability 43/100 (moderate) — FCF YoY std dev 65%, net income 74% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $15.9b $-944.1m $5.1b -5.9%
2017 $17.3b (9.1%) $-17.8m (98.1%) $5.3b (3.8%) -0.1% (98.3%)
2018 $18.7b (7.6%) $1.4b (7982.4%) $5.1b (-2.8%) 7.5% (7425.2%)
2019 $14.9b (-19.9%) $2.0b (41.5%) $5.0b (-2.9%) 13.3% (76.6%) $0.78
2020 $10.5b (-29.9%) $222.7m (-88.8%) $222.7m (-95.5%) 2.1% (-84.0%) $0.09 (-88.5%)
2021 $16.4b (56.4%) $3.9b (1641.9%) $7.4b (3212.1%) 23.7% (1013.7%) $1.52 (1588.9%)
2022 $24.3b (48.2%) $7.1b (84.3%) $-184.5m (-102.5%) 29.4% (24.3%) $2.81 (84.9%)
2023 $20.0b (-17.7%) $4.9b (-32.1%) $-3.0b (-1547.9%) 24.3% (-17.4%) $1.91 (-32.0%)
2024 $17.8b (-10.7%) $1.5b (-69.7%) $-10.3b (-237.2%) 8.2% (-66.1%) $0.58 (-69.6%)
2025 $17.4b (-2.4%) $3.8b (160.8%) $-13.8b (-35.0%) 22.0% (167.3%) $1.52 (162.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in BRL. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model