Discounted Cash Flow
Paypal Holdings, Inc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 8.5% (2022) → 8.2% (2023) → 6.8% (2024) → 4.3% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now 4.3% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Financial-sector DCF: free cash flow for lenders/insurers includes loan principal and deposits, so FCF ≈ 5-10× net income and is not a valuation proxy; the model shows moderate/unstable predictability and the DCF can be 5-40× market cap (lender pattern).
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $10.8b | $1.4b | $1.4b | 12.9% | $1.16 |
| 2017 | $13.1b (20.8%) | $1.8b (28.1%) | $-16.9b (-1305.4%) | 13.7% (6.1%) | $1.49 (28.4%) |
| 2018 | $15.5b (18.0%) | $2.1b (14.6%) | $-16.9b (-0.1%) | 13.3% (-2.9%) | $1.74 (16.8%) |
| 2019 | $17.8b (15.0%) | $2.5b (19.5%) | $-23.3b (-38.0%) | 13.8% (3.9%) | $2.09 (20.1%) |
| 2020 | $21.5b (20.7%) | $4.2b (70.9%) | $-35.7b (-52.9%) | 19.6% (41.6%) | $3.58 (71.3%) |
| 2021 | $25.4b (18.3%) | $4.2b (-0.8%) | $-33.8b (5.3%) | 16.4% (-16.1%) | $3.55 (-0.8%) |
| 2022 | $27.5b (8.5%) | $2.4b (-42.0%) | $5.1b (115.1%) | 8.8% (-46.5%) | $2.10 (-40.8%) |
| 2023 | $29.8b (8.2%) | $4.2b (75.5%) | $4.2b (-17.4%) | 14.3% (62.2%) | $3.85 (83.3%) |
| 2024 | $31.8b (6.8%) | $4.1b (-2.3%) | $-18.8b (-544.5%) | 13.0% (-8.6%) | $4.03 (4.7%) |
| 2025 | $33.2b (4.3%) | $5.2b (26.2%) | $-14.0b (25.5%) | 15.8% (21.0%) | $5.46 (35.5%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.