Discounted Cash Flow
Qfin Holdings, Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $117.5m | $24.6m | $-17.6m | 20.9% | $0.83 |
| 2018 | $96.4m (-17.9%) | $-41.3m (-268.0%) | $41.2m (334.2%) | -42.8% (-304.7%) | $-1.37 (-265.1%) |
| 2019 | $197.5m (104.8%) | $43.4k (100.1%) | $439.5m (965.8%) | 0.0% (100.1%) | $1.24 (190.5%) |
| 2020 | $310.0m (57.0%) | $133.8k (208.2%) | $791.9m (80.2%) | 0.0% (96.4%) | $1.80 (45.2%) |
| 2021 | $389.3m (25.6%) | $2.6m (1818.8%) | $859.5m (8.5%) | 0.7% (1428.0%) | $2.95 (63.9%) |
| 2022 | $357.9m (-8.1%) | $2.8m (8.1%) | $879.1m (2.3%) | 0.8% (17.6%) | $1.87 (-36.6%) |
| 2023 | $2.4b (578.7%) | $2.5m (-9.9%) | $1.0b (19.3%) | 0.1% (-86.7%) | $1.88 (0.5%) |
| 2024 | $2.6b (5.4%) | $2.4m (-3.3%) | $1.4b (30.7%) | 0.1% (-8.3%) | $2.88 (53.2%) |
| 2025 | $2.9b (11.9%) | $2.1m (-13.3%) | $1.6b (18.0%) | 0.1% (-22.5%) | $3.21 (11.5%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.