Discounted Cash Flow
Recon Technology, Ltd. Foreign
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $6.4m | $-917.5k | $-46.7k | -14.4% | $-1.09 |
| 2017 | $1.3m (-79.3%) | $-691.8k (24.6%) | $831.6k (1882.2%) | -52.4% (-263.6%) | $-4.90 (-349.5%) |
| 2018 | $1.9m (44.4%) | $-992.7k (-43.5%) | $-509.0k (-161.2%) | -52.0% (0.6%) | $-3.84 (21.6%) |
| 2019 | $2.2m (16.5%) | $-550.6k (44.5%) | $-958.3k (-88.3%) | -24.8% (52.4%) | $-1.30 (66.1%) |
| 2020 | $1.4m (-37.6%) | $-405.9k (26.3%) | $-123.1k (87.2%) | -29.3% (-18.2%) | $-4.16 (-220.0%) |
| 2021 | $1.1m (-20.2%) | $-527.2k (-29.9%) | $-864.1k (-601.7%) | -47.6% (-62.7%) | $-1.80 (56.7%) |
| 2022 | $1.9m (68.5%) | $2.1m (503.6%) | $-687.6k (20.4%) | 114.1% (339.6%) | $0.48 (126.7%) |
| 2023 | $1.4m (-26.0%) | $-1.2m (-157.2%) | $-1.2m (-75.0%) | -88.2% (-177.3%) | $-3.78 (-887.5%) |
| 2024 | $1.4m (2.4%) | $-1.0m (15.9%) | $-939.7k (21.9%) | -72.4% (17.8%) | $-1.36 (64.0%) |
| 2025 | $1.4m (-2.3%) | $-886.5k (13.4%) | $-853.7k (9.2%) | -64.3% (11.3%) | $-0.65 (52.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.