Discounted Cash Flow
Atrenew Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | $1.1b | $-236.0m | $-76.6m | -20.7% | $-84.27 |
| 2020 | $1.3b (14.9%) | $-264.6m (-12.1%) | $-67.2m (12.3%) | -20.2% (2.4%) | $-94.51 (-12.2%) |
| 2021 | $2.1b (59.4%) | $-197.6m (25.3%) | $9.1m (113.6%) | -9.5% (53.2%) | $-13.76 (85.4%) |
| 2022 | $1.5b (-29.5%) | $-367.9m (-86.2%) | $8.0m (-12.4%) | -25.0% (-164.2%) | $-2.20 (84.0%) |
| 2023 | $1.9b (31.4%) | $-23.3m (93.7%) | $2.4m (-70.2%) | -1.2% (95.2%) | $-0.14 (93.6%) |
| 2024 | $2.4b (25.9%) | $-168.2k (99.3%) | $17.4m (629.5%) | -0.0% (99.4%) | $-0.01 (92.9%) |
| 2025 | $3.1b (28.9%) | $7.2m (4363.1%) | $7.6m (-56.1%) | 0.2% (3407.2%) | $0.30 (3100.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.