Discounted Cash Flow
RLX Technology Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $6.4m | $-6.1m | $-69.6k | -95.7% | $-7.23 |
| 2017 | $9.0m (40.5%) | $-4.7m (23.1%) | $-1.2m (-1618.2%) | -52.4% (45.3%) | $-4.90 (32.2%) |
| 2018 | $19.8m (120.8%) | $-6.6m (-40.2%) | $-150.0k (87.5%) | -33.2% (36.5%) | $-0.00 (100.0%) |
| 2019 | $231.0m (1068.3%) | $-3.8m (42.5%) | $37.7m (25265.0%) | -1.6% (95.1%) | $0.03 (16600.0%) |
| 2020 | $87.3m (-62.2%) | $-2.9m (24.1%) | $-2.9m (-107.6%) | -3.3% (-100.9%) | $-0.01 (-142.4%) |
| 2021 | $199.4m (128.4%) | $-3.4m (-18.6%) | $-3.4m (-18.6%) | -1.7% (48.1%) | $0.23 (1721.4%) |
| 2022 | $115.3m (-42.2%) | $14.3m (518.6%) | $71.8m (2207.6%) | 12.4% (824.0%) | $0.16 (-30.4%) |
| 2023 | $33.3m (-71.1%) | $-8.8m (-161.9%) | $29.0m (-59.5%) | -26.5% (-314.2%) | $0.06 (-63.9%) |
| 2024 | $56.1m (68.5%) | $-7.4m (15.7%) | $-7.4m (-125.6%) | -13.2% (50.0%) | $0.06 (7.0%) |
| 2025 | $84.4m (50.3%) | $-6.4m (14.6%) | $-6.4m (14.6%) | -7.5% (43.2%) | $0.10 (63.9%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.