Discounted Cash Flow
Grupo Simec, S.A.b. de C.v. ADR
—
—
⚠ Cash flow predictability 50/100 (moderate) —
FCF YoY std dev 65%,
net income 81% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $1.6b | $257.6m | $153.8m | 15.9% | $5.97 |
| 2017 | $1.7b (4.3%) | $111.8m (-56.6%) | $171.5m (11.5%) | 6.6% (-58.4%) | $3.84 (-35.7%) |
| 2018 | $2.1b (24.3%) | $215.6m (92.8%) | $93.5m (-45.5%) | 10.2% (55.1%) | $7.46 (94.3%) |
| 2019 | $2.0b (-4.2%) | $-96.6m (-144.8%) | $52.3m (-44.0%) | -4.8% (-146.8%) | $-3.52 (-147.2%) |
| 2020 | $2.1b (5.0%) | $165.1m (271.0%) | $212.0m (305.1%) | 7.8% (263.0%) | $6.04 (271.6%) |
| 2021 | $3.3b (55.1%) | $-557.5m (-437.6%) | $490.6m (131.4%) | -17.0% (-317.7%) | $20.41 (237.9%) |
| 2022 | $3.2b (-2.6%) | $-464.0m (16.8%) | $522.9m (6.6%) | -14.5% (14.5%) | $17.00 (-16.7%) |
| 2023 | $2.4b (-23.9%) | $252.8m (154.5%) | $246.4m (-52.9%) | 10.4% (171.6%) | $9.28 (-45.4%) |
| 2024 | $2.0b (-17.3%) | $619.0m (144.9%) | $320.0m (29.9%) | 30.8% (196.0%) | $22.71 (144.7%) |
| 2025 | $2.0b (-1.2%) | $618.6m (-0.1%) | $-139.1m (-143.5%) | 31.1% (1.2%) | $63.21 (178.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in MXN. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.