Discounted Cash Flow
Silicon Motion Technology Corp. ADR
—
—
⚠ Cash flow predictability 53/100 (moderate) —
FCF YoY std dev 70%,
net income 51% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $17.7m | $3.5m | $3.6m | 19.9% | $0.79 |
| 2017 | $16.6m (-5.9%) | $2.4m (-32.4%) | $2.9m (-18.7%) | 14.3% (-28.2%) | $0.53 (-32.9%) |
| 2018 | $16.9m (1.3%) | $3.1m (30.8%) | $1.1m (-63.8%) | 18.5% (29.1%) | $0.68 (28.3%) |
| 2019 | $14.5m (-13.8%) | $2.0m (-34.3%) | $2.1m (99.7%) | 14.1% (-23.8%) | $0.46 (-32.4%) |
| 2020 | $17.1m (18.0%) | $2.5m (23.8%) | $3.1m (46.5%) | 14.8% (5.0%) | $0.57 (23.9%) |
| 2021 | $29.3m (70.9%) | $6.4m (150.8%) | $4.8m (53.6%) | 21.7% (46.7%) | $1.43 (150.9%) |
| 2022 | $30.1m (2.6%) | $5.5m (-13.7%) | $1.6m (-66.0%) | 18.2% (-15.9%) | $5.19 (262.9%) |
| 2023 | $20.3m (-32.4%) | $1.7m (-69.4%) | $3.1m (93.9%) | 8.3% (-54.6%) | $0.40 (-92.3%) |
| 2024 | $25.5m (25.7%) | $2.8m (68.8%) | $1.0m (-66.8%) | 11.1% (34.3%) | $0.66 (65.0%) |
| 2025 | $28.1m (10.2%) | $3.9m (37.4%) | $200.0k (-80.8%) | 13.8% (24.7%) | $0.91 (37.9%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in TWD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.