Discounted Cash Flow
Scienjoy Holding Corp. Foreign
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $136.4m | $22.4m | $-174.9k | 16.4% | $7.73 |
| 2020 | $27.9m (-79.5%) | $4.0m (-82.0%) | $3.5m (2117.0%) | 14.4% (-12.1%) | $1.16 (-85.0%) |
| 2021 | $39.1m (39.9%) | $4.0m (-1.1%) | $2.7m (-23.8%) | 10.2% (-29.3%) | $0.87 (-25.0%) |
| 2022 | $42.2m (8.1%) | $4.2m (5.1%) | $1.2m (-55.5%) | 9.9% (-2.8%) | $0.71 (-18.4%) |
| 2023 | $218.4m (417.3%) | $-646.5k (-115.5%) | $2.1m (79.2%) | -0.3% (-103.0%) | $-0.11 (-115.5%) |
| 2024 | $203.3m (-6.9%) | $810.9k (225.4%) | $1.4m (-35.5%) | 0.4% (234.8%) | $0.13 (218.2%) |
| 2025 | $185.1m (-8.9%) | $-12.5m (-1643.8%) | $1.5m (7.4%) | -6.8% (-1795.2%) | $-2.01 (-1646.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.