Discounted Cash Flow
Solai Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $1.6m | $0 | $-17.6m | 0.0% | $-0.07 |
| 2017 | $19.6m (1101.7%) | $-84.5k | $-31.8m (-80.5%) | -0.4% | $-0.12 (-71.4%) |
| 2018 | $165.2k (-99.2%) | $-482.4k (-470.5%) | $-482.4k (98.5%) | -292.0% (-67522.7%) | $-1.10 (-816.7%) |
| 2019 | $75.0k (-54.6%) | $-0 (100.0%) | $-24.4m (-4956.6%) | -0.0% (100.0%) | $-1.52 (-38.2%) |
| 2020 | $498.5k (564.6%) | $-5.1m | $-10.2m (58.3%) | -1023.4% | $-0.52 (65.8%) |
| 2021 | $198.1m (39651.0%) | $-4.1m (18.9%) | $-13.5m (-33.1%) | -2.1% (99.8%) | $-0.09 (82.7%) |
| 2022 | $97.0m (-51.1%) | $-449.1k (89.1%) | $-11.5m (14.9%) | -0.5% (77.8%) | $-0.18 (-100.0%) |
| 2023 | $6.4m (-93.4%) | $-3.8m (-742.8%) | $-4.4m (61.4%) | -58.9% (-12614.0%) | $-0.03 (83.3%) |
| 2024 | $5.0m (-22.2%) | $-23.0k (99.4%) | $-5.1m (-13.7%) | -0.5% (99.2%) | $0.01 (133.3%) |
| 2025 | $3.4m (-31.4%) | $-89.9k (-291.6%) | $-89.9k (98.2%) | -2.6% (-471.1%) | $-0.02 (-300.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.