Discounted Cash Flow
Sound Group Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $67.6m | $-22.9m | $-5.9m | -33.9% | $-1.73 |
| 2018 | $119.0m (76.1%) | $-1.4m (93.9%) | $-29.7k (99.5%) | -1.2% (96.5%) | $-0.87 (49.7%) |
| 2019 | $25.3m (-78.8%) | $-2.8m (-104.4%) | $-14.9m (-50028.6%) | -11.3% (-862.6%) | $-0.59 (32.2%) |
| 2020 | $34.3m (35.8%) | $-1.9m (34.0%) | $5.5m (136.8%) | -5.5% (51.4%) | $-0.04 (93.2%) |
| 2021 | $49.6m (44.4%) | $-3.0m (-58.5%) | $-6.5m (-218.6%) | -6.0% (-9.8%) | $-0.02 (50.0%) |
| 2022 | $47.2m (-4.7%) | $1.9k (100.1%) | $20.1m (408.8%) | 0.0% (100.1%) | $0.01 (150.0%) |
| 2023 | $43.5m (-7.9%) | $1.2m (60392.3%) | $1.2m (-94.2%) | 2.7% (65581.4%) | $-0.02 (-300.0%) |
| 2024 | $41.5m (-4.6%) | $-1.7m (-244.9%) | $-4.2m (-455.9%) | -4.1% (-251.9%) | $-0.01 (50.0%) |
| 2025 | $462.6m (1014.7%) | $869.6k (151.2%) | $-2.6m (38.6%) | 0.2% (104.6%) | $0.03 (400.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.