Discounted Cash Flow
Sunlands Technology Group ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $62.5m | $-37.8m | $13.3m | -60.5% | $-66.40 |
| 2017 | $144.7m (131.6%) | $-20.3k (99.9%) | $62.8m (372.0%) | -0.0% (100.0%) | $-232.80 (-250.6%) |
| 2018 | $295.6m (104.3%) | $10.7k (152.9%) | $15.7m (-75.0%) | 0.0% (125.9%) | $-147.27 (36.7%) |
| 2019 | $328.2m (11.0%) | $-51.9k (-583.3%) | $-80.1m (-610.4%) | -0.0% (-535.4%) | $-57.81 (60.7%) |
| 2020 | $328.7m (0.2%) | $-66.5k (-28.2%) | $-28.4m (64.5%) | -0.0% (-28.0%) | $-63.74 (-10.3%) |
| 2021 | $374.3m (13.9%) | $-997.5k (-1400.0%) | $-56.0m (-97.0%) | -0.3% (-1217.1%) | $32.56 (151.1%) |
| 2022 | $347.3m (-7.2%) | $-141.7k (85.8%) | $1.3m (102.3%) | -0.0% (84.7%) | $13.65 (-58.1%) |
| 2023 | $322.6m (-7.1%) | $149 (100.1%) | $20.9m (1513.9%) | 0.0% (100.1%) | $13.08 (-4.2%) |
| 2024 | $297.4m (-7.8%) | $0 (-100.0%) | $29.1m (39.6%) | 0.0% (-100.0%) | $6.87 (-47.5%) |
| 2025 | $301.9m (1.5%) | $0 | $21.9m (-24.9%) | 0.0% | $7.76 (13.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.