Discounted Cash Flow
Constellation Brands, Inc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 7.2% (2023) → 5.4% (2024) → 2.5% (2025) → -10.5% (2026). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -10.5% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $5.3b | $1.1b | $570.8m | 20.9% | $14.86 |
| 2018 | $5.5b (3.5%) | $1.7b (51.1%) | $632.4m (10.8%) | 30.6% (46.0%) | $22.97 (54.6%) |
| 2019 | $5.9b (7.0%) | $2.5b (48.2%) | $984.3m (55.6%) | 42.3% (38.5%) | $34.81 (51.5%) |
| 2020 | $6.0b (2.8%) | $-8.5m (-100.3%) | $1.3b (34.2%) | -0.1% (-100.3%) | $-0.14 (-100.4%) |
| 2021 | $6.2b (3.3%) | $1.4b (17032.2%) | $1.4b (6.4%) | 23.2% (16498.8%) | $19.92 (14328.6%) |
| 2022 | $6.4b (2.4%) | $-29.2m (-102.0%) | $1.2b (-13.6%) | -0.5% (-102.0%) | $0.01 (-100.0%) |
| 2023 | $6.8b (7.2%) | $-51.4m (-75.7%) | $1.2b (2.6%) | -0.8% (-64.0%) | $-0.20 (-3912.3%) |
| 2024 | $7.2b (5.4%) | $1.3b (2533.0%) | $1.1b (-12.2%) | 17.3% (2408.6%) | $9.63 (4915.9%) |
| 2025 | $7.4b (2.5%) | $-58.9m (-104.7%) | $1.4b (28.3%) | -0.8% (-104.6%) | $-0.17 (-101.8%) |
| 2026 | $6.6b (-10.5%) | $1.2b (2172.1%) | $1.3b (-7.4%) | 18.5% (2414.6%) | $10.02 (5944.1%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CAD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.