Discounted Cash Flow
So-young International Inc. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $38.7m | $2.6m | $13.5m | 6.6% | — |
| 2018 | $92.0m (138.0%) | $8.2m (220.2%) | $28.7m (112.4%) | 8.9% (34.5%) | — |
| 2019 | $171.7m (86.6%) | $26.4m (220.8%) | $51.6m (79.8%) | 15.3% (72.0%) | — |
| 2020 | $193.1m (12.4%) | $865.9k (-96.7%) | $21.2m (-58.9%) | 0.4% (-97.1%) | — |
| 2021 | $252.4m (30.7%) | $-1.2m (-244.2%) | $5.8m (-72.4%) | -0.5% (-210.3%) | — |
| 2022 | $187.6m (-25.7%) | $-9.8m (-683.1%) | $-19.2m (-427.8%) | -5.2% (-953.7%) | — |
| 2023 | $223.4m (19.1%) | $3.2m (132.5%) | $-4.3m (77.7%) | 1.4% (127.3%) | — |
| 2024 | $218.7m (-2.1%) | $-87.9m (-2870.3%) | $-13.1m (-207.5%) | -40.2% (-2929.5%) | — |
| 2025 | $227.2m (3.9%) | $-36.1m (58.9%) | $-45.0m (-242.5%) | -15.9% (60.4%) | — |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.