Discounted Cash Flow
TAL Education Group ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $155.5m | $17.4m | $43.0m | 11.2% | $0.72 |
| 2018 | $255.7m (64.4%) | $29.6m (69.8%) | $83.3m (93.8%) | 11.6% (3.3%) | $1.13 (56.9%) |
| 2019 | $382.2m (49.4%) | $54.8m (85.1%) | $8.3m (-90.0%) | 14.3% (23.8%) | $1.93 (70.8%) |
| 2020 | $488.1m (27.7%) | $-16.4m (-130.0%) | $101.1m (1111.3%) | -3.4% (-123.5%) | $-0.56 (-129.0%) |
| 2021 | $670.4m (37.3%) | $-17.3m (-5.3%) | $105.8m (4.7%) | -2.6% (23.4%) | $-0.57 (-1.8%) |
| 2022 | $654.7m (-2.3%) | $-169.4m (-879.5%) | $-176.8m (-267.0%) | -25.9% (-902.9%) | $-5.29 (-828.1%) |
| 2023 | $152.1m (-76.8%) | $-20.2m (88.1%) | $-15.4m (91.3%) | -13.3% (48.6%) | $-0.64 (87.9%) |
| 2024 | $222.2m (46.2%) | $-532.8k (97.4%) | $28.8m (287.9%) | -0.2% (98.2%) | $-0.02 (96.9%) |
| 2025 | $335.5m (51.0%) | $12.6m (2467.5%) | $42.7m (48.0%) | 3.8% (1668.1%) | $0.42 (2200.0%) |
| 2026 | $448.7m (33.7%) | $79.1m (527.4%) | $75.8m (77.6%) | 17.6% (369.2%) | $2.79 (564.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.