Discounted Cash Flow
Molson Coors Beverage Co.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 2.9% (2022) → -8.6% (2023) → -0.6% (2024) → -4.2% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -4.2% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $3.5b | $1.4b | $815.6m | 40.4% | $9.32 |
| 2017 | $8.0b (125.2%) | $1.0b (-28.4%) | $1.4b (65.6%) | 12.9% (-68.2%) | $6.57 (-29.5%) |
| 2018 | $9.7b (21.2%) | $808.1m (-21.1%) | $1.7b (24.9%) | 8.4% (-34.9%) | $5.15 (-21.6%) |
| 2019 | $9.4b (-2.5%) | $174.9m (-78.4%) | $1.4b (-18.6%) | 1.9% (-77.8%) | $1.11 (-78.4%) |
| 2020 | $8.5b (-9.9%) | $-686.9m (-492.6%) | $1.2b (-10.6%) | -8.1% (-535.7%) | $0.57 (-48.6%) |
| 2021 | $9.0b (6.2%) | $727.9m (206.0%) | $1.1b (-7.2%) | 8.1% (199.8%) | $4.63 (712.3%) |
| 2022 | $9.3b (2.9%) | $-126.9m (-117.4%) | $608.4m (-46.6%) | -1.4% (-116.9%) | $-0.81 (-117.5%) |
| 2023 | $8.5b (-8.6%) | $686.8m (641.3%) | $1.0b (67.4%) | 8.1% (692.4%) | $4.39 (642.0%) |
| 2024 | $8.4b (-0.6%) | $812.4m (18.3%) | $894.7m (-12.2%) | 9.7% (19.0%) | $5.38 (22.6%) |
| 2025 | $8.1b (-4.2%) | $-1.5b (-290.6%) | $772.9m (-13.6%) | -19.2% (-298.9%) | $-10.75 (-299.8%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CAD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.