Discounted Cash Flow
Trip.com Group Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $425.0m | $-30.7m | $98.6m | -7.2% | — |
| 2017 | $618.3m (45.5%) | $49.1m (259.8%) | $151.2m (53.4%) | 7.9% (209.8%) | — |
| 2018 | $671.6m (8.6%) | $24.2m (-50.8%) | $139.9m (-7.5%) | 3.6% (-54.7%) | — |
| 2019 | $763.7m (13.7%) | $150.0m (521.0%) | $139.7m (-0.1%) | 19.6% (446.1%) | — |
| 2020 | $418.6m (-45.2%) | $-74.1m (-149.4%) | $-99.8m (-171.4%) | -17.7% (-190.1%) | — |
| 2021 | $468.5m (11.9%) | $-12.8m (82.7%) | $44.6m (144.7%) | -2.7% (84.5%) | — |
| 2022 | $433.5m (-7.5%) | $30.7m (339.5%) | $30.7m (-31.1%) | 7.1% (358.9%) | — |
| 2023 | $6.6b (1432.9%) | $208.3m (578.2%) | $208.3m (578.2%) | 3.1% (-55.8%) | — |
| 2024 | $8.0b (19.8%) | $348.6m (67.4%) | $2.9b (1299.0%) | 4.4% (39.7%) | — |
| 2025 | $9.3b (17.1%) | $710.1m (103.7%) | $2.1b (-27.0%) | 7.6% (73.9%) | — |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.