Discounted Cash Flow
Target Corp.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 2.9% (2023) → -1.6% (2024) → -0.8% (2025) → -1.7% (2026). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -1.7% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $53.4b | $2.4b | $-603.6m | 4.6% | $5.35 |
| 2017 | $50.3b (-5.8%) | $2.0b (-18.6%) | $2.8b (566.3%) | 3.9% (-13.6%) | $4.74 (-11.4%) |
| 2018 | $52.6b (4.6%) | $2.1b (7.2%) | $3.2b (12.9%) | 4.0% (2.5%) | $5.32 (12.2%) |
| 2019 | $54.5b (3.6%) | $2.1b (0.1%) | $1.8b (-44.0%) | 3.9% (-3.4%) | $5.55 (4.3%) |
| 2020 | $56.5b (3.7%) | $2.4b (11.7%) | $3.0b (66.5%) | 4.2% (7.8%) | $6.42 (15.7%) |
| 2021 | $67.7b (19.8%) | $3.2b (33.1%) | $5.7b (92.6%) | 4.7% (11.1%) | $8.72 (35.8%) |
| 2022 | $76.7b (13.3%) | $5.0b (59.0%) | $3.7b (-35.5%) | 6.6% (40.4%) | $14.23 (63.2%) |
| 2023 | $79.0b (2.9%) | $2.0b (-60.0%) | $-1.1b (-129.7%) | 2.5% (-61.1%) | $6.02 (-57.7%) |
| 2024 | $77.7b (-1.6%) | $3.0b (48.8%) | $2.8b (352.6%) | 3.9% (51.2%) | $8.96 (48.8%) |
| 2025 | $77.1b (-0.8%) | $3.0b (-1.1%) | $3.2b (17.3%) | 3.8% (-0.4%) | $8.89 (-0.8%) |
| 2026 | $75.8b (-1.7%) | $2.7b (-9.4%) | $4.7b (46.6%) | 3.5% (-7.9%) | $8.16 (-8.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CAD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.