Discounted Cash Flow
UP Fintech Holding Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $2.5m | $-1.2m | $-1.4m | -46.8% | $-0.02 |
| 2018 | $5.0m (98.0%) | $-6.4m (-445.0%) | $-3.4m (-151.3%) | -128.7% (-175.3%) | $-0.09 (-350.0%) |
| 2019 | $8.7m (74.8%) | $-982.6k (84.7%) | $-982.6k (71.2%) | -11.2% (91.3%) | $0.00 (100.0%) |
| 2020 | $20.7m (136.1%) | $2.4m (343.8%) | $2.4m (343.8%) | 11.6% (203.3%) | $0.01 |
| 2021 | $39.4m (91.0%) | $2.2m (-8.6%) | $2.2m (-8.6%) | 5.6% (-52.1%) | $0.01 (0.0%) |
| 2022 | $33.6m (-14.8%) | $-336.5k (-115.4%) | $-336.5k (-115.4%) | -1.0% (-118.0%) | $0.00 (-100.0%) |
| 2023 | $40.6m (20.9%) | $4.9m (1562.5%) | $-1.4m (-313.4%) | 12.1% (1309.5%) | $0.01 |
| 2024 | $58.4m (43.7%) | $9.1m (85.9%) | $9.1m (757.6%) | 15.7% (29.4%) | $0.03 (150.0%) |
| 2025 | $91.3m (56.3%) | $25.6m (179.5%) | $195.5m (2037.1%) | 28.0% (78.8%) | $0.06 (156.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.