Discounted Cash Flow

Toyota Motor Corp./ ADR

TM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from JPY to USD (1 ordinary shares per ADR)

⚠ Cash flow predictability 60/100 (moderate) — FCF YoY std dev 65%, net income 36% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $160.5b $11.9b $7.1b 7.4%
2018 $178.0b (10.9%) $16.2b (36.2%) $18.9b (166.2%) 9.1% (22.8%) $832.78
2019 $196.2b (10.2%) $12.2b (-24.5%) $15.0b (-20.7%) 6.2% (-31.5%) $645.11 (-22.5%)
2020 $194.2b (-1.0%) $13.5b (10.3%) $14.2b (-5.7%) 6.9% (11.4%) $729.50 (13.1%)
2021 $176.6b (-9.1%) $14.8b (9.9%) $2.9b (-79.3%) 8.4% (20.9%)
2022 $203.7b (15.3%) $18.7b (25.9%) $9.3b (217.9%) 9.2% (9.2%)
2023 $241.1b (18.4%) $16.2b (-13.3%) $6.8b (-27.0%) 6.7% (-26.8%)
2024 $292.7b (21.4%) $32.9b (103.4%) $8.7b (27.8%) 11.2% (67.6%)
2025 $311.8b (6.5%) $31.1b (-5.6%) $4.5b (-47.7%) 10.0% (-11.3%)
2026 $328.9b (5.5%) $25.9b (-16.8%) $17.6b (286.6%) 7.9% (-21.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in JPY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model