Discounted Cash Flow
Tuniu Corp. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $226.5m | $-52.1m | $-49.3m | -23.0% | — |
| 2017 | $50.2m (-77.8%) | $-17.6m (66.3%) | $-19.4m (60.7%) | -35.0% (-52.1%) | — |
| 2018 | $48.6m (-3.3%) | $-4.0m (77.1%) | $-13.1m (32.1%) | -8.3% (76.3%) | — |
| 2019 | $48.9m (0.6%) | $-14.9m (-269.8%) | $-2.6m (80.4%) | -30.4% (-267.7%) | $-1.89 |
| 2020 | $10.3m (-78.9%) | $-29.9m (-100.9%) | $-30.0m (-1063.1%) | -290.5% (-854.0%) | $-3.53 (-86.8%) |
| 2021 | $10.0m (-3.0%) | $-2.8m (90.5%) | $-5.3m (82.4%) | -28.5% (90.2%) | $-0.05 (98.6%) |
| 2022 | $4.0m (-60.2%) | $-4.2m (-47.0%) | $-22.3m (-320.7%) | -105.3% (-269.4%) | $-0.08 (-60.0%) |
| 2023 | $9.3m (133.4%) | $-2.1m (50.1%) | $-2.1m (90.6%) | -22.5% (78.6%) | $-0.04 (50.0%) |
| 2024 | $10.5m (13.2%) | $1.6m (175.6%) | $12.6m (703.9%) | 15.0% (166.8%) | $0.03 (175.0%) |
| 2025 | $12.3m (17.5%) | $663.8k (-57.9%) | $663.8k (-94.7%) | 5.4% (-64.2%) | $0.01 (-66.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.