Discounted Cash Flow
Trupanion, Inc.
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Financial-sector DCF: free cash flow for lenders/insurers includes loan principal and deposits, so FCF ≈ 5-10× net income and is not a valuation proxy; the model shows moderate/unstable predictability and the DCF can be 5-40× market cap (lender pattern).
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $135.2m | $-5.0m | $2.2m | -3.7% | $-0.24 |
| 2017 | $174.4m (28.9%) | $-1.1m (78.2%) | $4.7m (113.2%) | -0.6% (83.1%) | $-0.05 (79.2%) |
| 2018 | $218.4m (25.3%) | $-666.0k (38.3%) | $-31.8m (-777.2%) | -0.3% (50.8%) | $-0.03 (40.0%) |
| 2019 | $275.9m (26.3%) | $-1.3m (-95.1%) | $7.7m (124.4%) | -0.5% (-54.5%) | $-0.05 (-66.7%) |
| 2020 | $360.7m (30.8%) | $-4.2m (-222.8%) | $10.1m (30.7%) | -1.2% (-146.9%) | $-0.16 (-220.0%) |
| 2021 | $502.2m (39.2%) | $-25.5m (-508.4%) | $-3.5m (-134.7%) | -5.1% (-337.0%) | $-0.89 (-456.2%) |
| 2022 | $650.4m (29.5%) | $-32.1m (-25.7%) | $-18.0m (-412.3%) | -4.9% (2.9%) | $-1.10 (-23.6%) |
| 2023 | $796.5m (22.5%) | $-32.1m (-0.0%) | $257.2k (101.4%) | -4.0% (18.3%) | $-1.08 (1.8%) |
| 2024 | $923.8m (16.0%) | $-6.9m (78.4%) | $27.7m (10674.0%) | -0.7% (81.4%) | $-0.23 (78.7%) |
| 2025 | $1.0b (11.9%) | $14.0m (301.7%) | $54.1m (95.4%) | 1.4% (280.2%) | $0.45 (295.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in AUD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.