Discounted Cash Flow
Tuya Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $15.8m | $-10.5m | $-8.8m | -66.6% | $-0.33 |
| 2020 | $26.8m (70.0%) | $-10.0m (5.1%) | $-7.8m (11.2%) | -37.2% (44.2%) | $-0.30 (9.1%) |
| 2021 | $45.0m (67.9%) | $-26.2m (-162.2%) | $-19.7m (-152.4%) | -58.1% (-56.1%) | $-0.36 (-20.0%) |
| 2022 | $31.0m (-31.1%) | $-21.8m (16.7%) | $-10.6m (46.1%) | -70.2% (-20.9%) | $-0.26 (27.8%) |
| 2023 | $34.3m (10.5%) | $-9.0m (58.7%) | $5.2m (149.0%) | -26.2% (62.7%) | $-0.11 (57.7%) |
| 2024 | $44.5m (29.8%) | $745.0k (108.3%) | $745.0k (-85.7%) | 1.7% (106.4%) | $0.01 (109.1%) |
| 2025 | $48.0m (7.8%) | $8.6m (1058.5%) | $11.0m (1379.0%) | 18.0% (975.1%) | $0.09 (800.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.