Discounted Cash Flow
Ucloudlink Group Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | $18.8m | $-4.0m | $-3.6m | -21.0% | $-0.16 |
| 2019 | $23.6m (25.3%) | $353.5k (108.9%) | $449.0k (112.5%) | 1.5% (107.1%) | $0.01 (106.2%) |
| 2020 | $13.4m (-43.4%) | $-9.6m (-2829.1%) | $-490.6k (-209.3%) | -72.2% (-4925.8%) | $-0.25 (-2600.0%) |
| 2021 | $11.0m (-17.6%) | $-6.9m (28.8%) | $-3.4m (-584.7%) | -62.4% (13.7%) | $-0.16 (36.0%) |
| 2022 | $10.7m (-3.2%) | $-3.0m (56.9%) | $-63.5k (98.1%) | -27.8% (55.5%) | $-0.06 (62.5%) |
| 2023 | $12.8m (19.8%) | $419.1k (114.2%) | $662.3k (1142.7%) | 3.3% (111.8%) | $0.01 (116.7%) |
| 2024 | $13.7m (7.1%) | $679.6k (62.1%) | $-681.6k (-202.9%) | 5.0% (51.4%) | $0.01 (0.0%) |
| 2025 | $12.1m (-11.1%) | $939.5k (38.2%) | $-440.3k (35.4%) | 7.7% (55.5%) | $0.02 (100.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.