Discounted Cash Flow
Ultrapar Holdings Inc. ADR
—
—
⚠ Cash flow predictability 66/100 (moderate) —
FCF YoY std dev 52%,
net income 52% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $15.1b | $304.7m | $388.1m | 2.0% | $2.88 |
| 2017 | $15.6b (3.4%) | $307.2m (0.8%) | $339.4m (-12.6%) | 2.0% (-2.5%) | $2.91 (0.7%) |
| 2018 | $17.7b (13.4%) | $224.5m (-26.9%) | $563.8m (66.1%) | 1.3% (-35.5%) | $1.06 (-63.5%) |
| 2019 | $17.4b (-1.5%) | $72.9m (-67.5%) | $570.8m (1.2%) | 0.4% (-67.0%) | $0.34 (-67.6%) |
| 2020 | $15.9b (-9.0%) | $174.3m (139.2%) | $612.4m (7.3%) | 1.1% (162.9%) | $0.82 (139.0%) |
| 2021 | $21.4b (35.1%) | $166.0m (-4.8%) | $504.6m (-17.6%) | 0.8% (-29.5%) | $0.78 (-5.1%) |
| 2022 | $28.0b (30.9%) | $351.4m (111.7%) | $155.7m (-69.1%) | 1.3% (61.8%) | $1.65 (111.5%) |
| 2023 | $24.6b (-12.2%) | $476.1m (35.5%) | $500.0m (221.2%) | 1.9% (54.4%) | $2.23 (35.1%) |
| 2024 | $26.1b (5.9%) | $461.1m (-3.2%) | $380.2m (-24.0%) | 1.8% (-8.6%) | $2.14 (-3.7%) |
| 2025 | $27.8b (6.6%) | $536.3m (16.3%) | $672.7m (76.9%) | 1.9% (9.1%) | — |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in BRL. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.