Discounted Cash Flow
United Parcel Service Inc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 3.1% (2022) → -9.3% (2023) → 0.1% (2024) → -2.6% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -2.6% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $70.7b | $4.0b | $1.9b | 5.6% | $3.89 |
| 2017 | $76.5b (8.2%) | $5.7b (43.1%) | $-180.0m (-109.4%) | 7.5% (32.3%) | $5.64 (45.0%) |
| 2018 | $83.5b (9.1%) | $5.6b (-2.4%) | $13.6b (7672.9%) | 6.7% (-10.6%) | $5.53 (-2.0%) |
| 2019 | $86.1b (3.1%) | $5.2b (-7.3%) | $9.4b (-31.2%) | 6.0% (-10.1%) | $5.14 (-7.1%) |
| 2020 | $98.3b (14.2%) | $1.6b (-69.8%) | $11.9b (26.3%) | 1.6% (-73.5%) | $1.55 (-69.8%) |
| 2021 | $113.0b (15.0%) | $15.0b (859.8%) | $17.1b (44.0%) | 13.2% (734.9%) | $14.75 (851.6%) |
| 2022 | $116.6b (3.1%) | $13.4b (-10.4%) | $14.2b (-17.0%) | 11.5% (-13.1%) | $13.26 (-10.1%) |
| 2023 | $105.7b (-9.3%) | $7.8b (-41.9%) | $7.8b (-44.9%) | 7.4% (-35.9%) | $7.81 (-41.1%) |
| 2024 | $105.8b (0.1%) | $6.7b (-13.8%) | $11.7b (49.6%) | 6.3% (-13.9%) | $6.76 (-13.4%) |
| 2025 | $103.0b (-2.6%) | $6.5b (-3.6%) | $9.7b (-16.8%) | 6.3% (-1.0%) | $6.56 (-3.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.