Discounted Cash Flow
Uxin Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $122.9m | $-202.5m | $-112.7m | -164.7% | $-36.11 |
| 2017 | $291.0m (136.7%) | $-406.0m (-100.5%) | $-285.6m (-153.3%) | -139.5% (15.3%) | $-76.51 (-111.9%) |
| 2018 | $72.0m (-75.2%) | $-227.0m (44.1%) | $-352.3m (-23.3%) | -315.2% (-125.9%) | $-76.51 (0.0%) |
| 2019 | $33.9m (-52.9%) | $-296.5m (-30.6%) | $-179.1m (49.2%) | -873.6% (-177.2%) | — |
| 2021 | $15.0m (-55.9%) | $-62.8m (78.8%) | $-167.4m (6.5%) | -419.8% (51.9%) | — |
| 2022 | $38.5m (157.2%) | $-21.4m (66.0%) | $-126.4m (24.5%) | -55.5% (86.8%) | $-2.07 |
| 2023 | $44.7m (16.2%) | $-20.5m (4.2%) | $-38.2m (69.8%) | -45.7% (17.6%) | $-0.66 (68.1%) |
| 2024 | $30.5m (-31.7%) | $-55.5m (-171.5%) | $-39.4m (-3.2%) | -181.8% (-297.4%) | $-0.15 (77.3%) |
| 2025 | $69.1m (126.2%) | $-41.4m (25.5%) | $-75.7m (-92.1%) | -59.9% (67.0%) | $0.00 (100.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.