Discounted Cash Flow

Vale S.A. ADR

VALE · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from BRL to USD

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⚠ Cash flow predictability 54/100 (moderate) — FCF YoY std dev 69%, net income 67% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales — — —
Free Cash Flow — — —
Average (FCF & NI) — — —
Net Income — — —
Dividends — — —

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales — — —
Free Cash Flow — — —
Average (FCF & NI) — — —
Net Income — — —

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

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Free cash flow growth —
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI) —
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth —
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations) —
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

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Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $5.4b $777.0m — 14.5% —
2017 $6.6b (23.6%) $1.1b (38.3%) — 16.2% (11.9%) —
2018 $7.1b (7.7%) $1.3b (24.6%) $2.3b 18.8% (15.7%) —
2019 $7.3b (2.7%) $-328.4m (-124.5%) — -4.5% (-123.9%) —
2020 $7.8b (6.5%) $952.5m (390.0%) — 12.2% (372.3%) —
2021 $10.6b (36.2%) $4.4b (359.8%) $3.9b 41.2% (237.6%) —
2022 $8.6b (-19.6%) $3.7b (-16.3%) $1.1b (-73.1%) 42.9% (4.1%) —
2023 $8.2b (-4.7%) $1.6b (-57.5%) $2.0b (93.3%) 19.1% (-55.4%) —
2024 $7.4b (-8.9%) $1.2b (-22.8%) $1.7b (-14.3%) 16.2% (-15.2%) —
2025 $7.5b (0.9%) $459.0m (-61.9%) $545.4m (-68.8%) 6.1% (-62.2%) —

Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth: —

Projection period: — years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in BRL. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF: —

Terminal FCF: —

Terminal value: —

PV of terminal value: —

Enterprise value (DCF): —

DCF price per share: —

Current price: —

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) ⓘ — — — — 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline) ⓘ — — — — —
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) ⓘ — — — N/A —

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model