Discounted Cash Flow
Visionsys AI Inc. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $235.5m | $36.1m | $21.2m | 15.3% | $4.35 |
| 2017 | $294.3m (25.0%) | $27.6m (-23.6%) | $16.6m (-21.6%) | 9.4% (-38.8%) | $3.25 (-25.3%) |
| 2018 | $310.9m (5.7%) | $-88.0m (-419.3%) | $21.6m (30.0%) | -28.3% (-402.3%) | $-10.74 (-430.6%) |
| 2019 | $43.9m (-85.9%) | $-22.2m (74.8%) | $-7.2m (-133.2%) | -50.5% (-78.5%) | $-2.79 (74.0%) |
| 2020 | $43.4m (-1.3%) | $-17.5m (21.1%) | $-17.6m (-145.8%) | -40.4% (20.0%) | $-2.16 (22.6%) |
| 2021 | $55.8m (28.8%) | $-11.1m (36.6%) | $97.4k (100.6%) | -19.9% (50.8%) | $-1.32 (38.9%) |
| 2022 | $53.4m (-4.4%) | $1.8m (116.3%) | $-4.8m (-4989.1%) | 3.4% (117.0%) | $1.11 (184.1%) |
| 2023 | $28.9m (-45.9%) | $187.6k (-89.6%) | $-18.3m (-285.0%) | 0.6% (-80.8%) | — |
| 2024 | $23.9m (-17.2%) | $-12.0m (-6487.5%) | $-18.9m (-2.9%) | -50.1% (-7813.0%) | — |
| 2025 | $22.2k (-99.9%) | $256.3m (2239.1%) | $-39.4m (-109.0%) | 1153604.0% (2302958.1%) | — |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.