Discounted Cash Flow
Weibo Corp. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $97.8m | $16.1m | $33.2m | 16.5% | $0.50 |
| 2017 | $171.5m (75.4%) | $52.6m (226.4%) | $77.3m (132.6%) | 30.7% (86.1%) | $1.60 (220.0%) |
| 2018 | $256.2m (49.4%) | $85.2m (62.2%) | $68.5m (-11.4%) | 33.3% (8.5%) | $2.56 (60.0%) |
| 2019 | $263.4m (2.8%) | $73.7m (-13.5%) | $90.9m (32.7%) | 28.0% (-15.9%) | $2.19 (-14.5%) |
| 2020 | $251.9m (-4.4%) | $46.7m (-36.7%) | $105.4m (15.9%) | 18.5% (-33.8%) | $1.38 (-37.0%) |
| 2021 | $336.5m (33.6%) | $63.9m (36.7%) | $116.1m (10.2%) | 19.0% (2.3%) | $1.87 (35.5%) |
| 2022 | $273.8m (-18.6%) | $12.8m (-80.0%) | $77.7m (-33.1%) | 4.7% (-75.4%) | $0.36 (-80.7%) |
| 2023 | $262.4m (-4.2%) | $51.1m (300.4%) | $94.8m (22.1%) | 19.5% (317.8%) | $1.45 (302.8%) |
| 2024 | $261.6m (-0.3%) | $44.8m (-12.2%) | $86.2m (-9.1%) | 17.1% (-11.9%) | $1.27 (-12.4%) |
| 2025 | $262.0m (0.1%) | $66.9m (49.3%) | $71.1m (-17.5%) | 25.6% (49.1%) | $1.88 (48.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.