Discounted Cash Flow
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 7.3% (2022) → -3.0% (2023) → -7.3% (2024) → -10.4% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -10.4% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $2.0b | $169.0m | — | 8.4% | $2.51 |
| 2017 | $2.0b (-0.5%) | $131.7m (-22.0%) | $236.7m | 6.6% (-21.7%) | $1.98 (-21.1%) |
| 2018 | $2.1b (4.5%) | $222.8m (69.1%) | $310.2m (31.1%) | 10.7% (61.8%) | $3.37 (70.2%) |
| 2019 | $2.1b (0.2%) | $195.1m (-12.4%) | $201.3m (-35.1%) | 9.3% (-12.6%) | $2.94 (-12.8%) |
| 2020 | $2.1b (1.7%) | $-86.1m (-144.1%) | $231.7m (15.1%) | -4.1% (-143.4%) | $-1.32 (-144.9%) |
| 2021 | $2.3b (6.0%) | $171.9m (299.6%) | $327.5m (41.4%) | 7.6% (288.3%) | $2.65 (300.8%) |
| 2022 | $2.4b (7.3%) | $171.9m (0.0%) | $290.1m (-11.4%) | 7.1% (-6.8%) | $2.66 (0.4%) |
| 2023 | $2.3b (-3.0%) | $20.0m (-88.4%) | $227.1m (-21.7%) | 0.9% (-88.0%) | $0.31 (-88.3%) |
| 2024 | $2.2b (-7.3%) | $-232.2m (-1262.4%) | $152.5m (-32.8%) | -10.7% (-1353.6%) | $-3.65 (-1277.4%) |
| 2025 | $1.9b (-10.4%) | $97.6m (142.0%) | $163.6m (7.3%) | 5.0% (146.9%) | $1.56 (142.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.