Discounted Cash Flow
Xchange Tec.Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $132.7m | $-94.7m | $-17.5m | -71.4% | — |
| 2019 | $25.7m (-80.6%) | $-120.1m (-26.8%) | $-20.3m (-16.2%) | -466.7% (-553.7%) | — |
| 2020 | $26.5m (3.1%) | $-228.7m (-90.4%) | $6.0m (129.6%) | -862.0% (-84.7%) | — |
| 2021 | $24.0m (-9.6%) | $-84.9m (62.9%) | $-16.4m (-372.6%) | -353.9% (58.9%) | $0.00 |
| 2022 | $13.7m (-43.0%) | $122.3m (244.1%) | $-5.9m (63.9%) | 894.2% (352.7%) | $0.00 |
| 2023 | $596 (-100.0%) | $-10.6m (-108.7%) | $-5.9m (-0.7%) | -1782825.0% (-199472.9%) | $0.00 |
| 2024 | $6.1m (1027200.0%) | $-33.8m (-218.1%) | $-1.5m (75.5%) | -552.0% (100.0%) | $0.00 |
| 2025 | $7.7m (24.9%) | $-111.6m (-230.0%) | $-1.7m (-19.7%) | -1458.6% (-164.3%) | $0.00 |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.