Discounted Cash Flow
Xunlei Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $23.3m | $-3.6m | $479.1k | -15.4% | — |
| 2017 | $29.9m (28.4%) | $-5.6m (-56.9%) | $-2.9m (-707.8%) | -18.9% (-22.1%) | $-0.11 |
| 2018 | $34.4m (15.0%) | $-5.9m (-3.8%) | $-5.5m (-89.6%) | -17.0% (9.7%) | $-0.12 (-5.3%) |
| 2019 | $26.9m (-21.7%) | $-7.9m (-35.4%) | $-7.3m (-31.6%) | -29.4% (-72.8%) | $-0.16 (-33.3%) |
| 2020 | $27.8m (3.2%) | $-2.1m (74.0%) | $-2.1m (71.2%) | -7.4% (74.8%) | $-0.04 (75.0%) |
| 2021 | $35.6m (28.1%) | $177.6k (108.6%) | $2.0m (197.3%) | 0.5% (106.7%) | $0.00 (109.0%) |
| 2022 | $50.9m (43.0%) | $3.2m (1702.1%) | $5.4m (164.6%) | 6.3% (1160.1%) | $0.06 (1675.0%) |
| 2023 | $54.2m (6.5%) | $2.1m (-33.7%) | $3.2m (-39.9%) | 3.9% (-37.8%) | $0.04 (-31.8%) |
| 2024 | $48.2m (-11.2%) | $181.1k (-91.5%) | $3.4m (5.6%) | 0.4% (-90.4%) | $0.00 (-91.3%) |
| 2025 | $68.6m (42.5%) | $156.3m (86177.0%) | $4.0m (18.2%) | 227.7% (60451.3%) | $3.37 (88476.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.