Discounted Cash Flow
XP Inc. Foreign
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Financial-sector DCF: free cash flow for lenders/insurers includes loan principal and deposits, so FCF ≈ 5-10× net income and is not a valuation proxy; the model shows moderate/unstable predictability and the DCF can be 5-40× market cap (lender pattern).
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
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Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $400.9m | $125.0m | $-105.4m | 31.2% | $0.94 |
| 2019 | $701.7m (75.0%) | $301.3m (141.0%) | $-758.4m (-619.9%) | 42.9% (37.7%) | $2.11 (125.7%) |
| 2020 | $978.9m (39.5%) | $472.5m (56.8%) | $266.5m (135.1%) | 48.3% (12.4%) | $3.76 (78.0%) |
| 2021 | $1.2b (23.5%) | $744.5m (57.6%) | $-811.0m (-404.3%) | 61.6% (27.6%) | $6.42 (70.8%) |
| 2022 | $1.2b (-4.1%) | $672.2m (-9.7%) | $343.3m (142.3%) | 58.0% (-5.8%) | $6.44 (0.4%) |
| 2023 | $1.3b (10.0%) | $768.1m (14.3%) | $1.6b (358.2%) | 60.3% (3.9%) | $7.22 (12.1%) |
| 2024 | $1.4b (13.7%) | $973.0m (26.7%) | $2.2b (36.9%) | 67.2% (11.4%) | $8.33 (15.4%) |
| 2025 | $1.6b (7.3%) | $1.1b (9.3%) | $2.3b (7.3%) | 68.4% (1.8%) | $9.80 (17.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in BRL. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.