Discounted Cash Flow
X Financial ADR
—
Concentrated control: CEO Justin Tang controls 94.0% of voting power — concentrated control; minority shareholders have limited influence. (20-F risk_factors 2026-04-30, 94.05%)
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $0 | $-17.8m | $12.0m | — | $-0.50 |
| 2017 | $265.7m | $50.6m (384.6%) | $-94.6m (-886.0%) | 19.0% | $1.30 (360.0%) |
| 2018 | $76.6m (-71.2%) | $19.1m (-62.3%) | $-39.4k (100.0%) | 24.9% (31.0%) | $0.45 (-65.4%) |
| 2019 | $66.0m (-13.9%) | $16.5m (-13.4%) | $89.0m (225925.2%) | 25.1% (0.5%) | $0.35 (-22.2%) |
| 2020 | $50.0m (-24.2%) | $-29.8m (-280.3%) | $-101.1m (-213.6%) | -59.7% (-338.0%) | $-0.62 (-277.1%) |
| 2021 | $84.6m (69.3%) | $19.3m (164.6%) | $66.7m (166.0%) | 22.8% (138.1%) | $0.39 (162.9%) |
| 2022 | $76.8m (-9.2%) | $17.5m (-9.1%) | $47.9m (-28.3%) | 22.8% (0.1%) | $0.37 (-5.1%) |
| 2023 | $715.9m (832.1%) | $24.9m (42.0%) | $120.9m (152.6%) | 3.5% (-84.8%) | $0.58 (56.8%) |
| 2024 | $873.1m (22.0%) | $31.4m (26.2%) | $226.2m (87.2%) | 3.6% (3.5%) | $0.73 (25.9%) |
| 2025 | $1.1b (30.1%) | $31.1m (-0.7%) | $217.7m (-3.7%) | 2.7% (-23.7%) | $0.86 (17.8%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.