Discounted Cash Flow
111, Inc. ADR
—
Sales growth has weakened: 0.5% (2022) → 7.4% (2023) → -6.3% (2024) → -9.0% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -9.0% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $130.3m | $114.1k | $-58.0m | 0.1% | — |
| 2017 | $143.1m (9.8%) | $111.4k (-2.4%) | $-31.5m (45.7%) | 0.1% (-11.1%) | — |
| 2018 | $38.7m (-72.9%) | $290.8k (161.0%) | $-51.5m (-63.4%) | 0.8% (864.2%) | — |
| 2019 | $84.6m (118.5%) | $331.2k (13.9%) | $-76.8m (-49.3%) | 0.4% (-47.9%) | — |
| 2020 | $187.5m (121.5%) | $-0 (-100.0%) | $-18.0m (76.6%) | -0.0% (-100.0%) | — |
| 2021 | $290.7m (55.1%) | $4.1m | $4.1m (123.1%) | 1.4% | $-0.63 |
| 2022 | $292.2m (0.5%) | $2.3m (-45.1%) | $-4.1m (-199.7%) | 0.8% (-45.3%) | $-0.36 (42.9%) |
| 2023 | $313.9m (7.4%) | $2.5m (10.1%) | $-66.9m (-1517.8%) | 0.8% (2.5%) | $-0.33 (8.3%) |
| 2024 | $294.2m (-6.3%) | $1.3m (-50.1%) | $38.9m (158.2%) | 0.4% (-46.7%) | $-0.05 (84.8%) |
| 2025 | $267.7m (-9.0%) | $610.5k (-51.3%) | $17.7m (-54.6%) | 0.2% (-46.4%) | $-0.05 (0.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.