Discounted Cash Flow
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $368.7m | $-1.0k | $-139.3m | -0.0% | $-0.46 |
| 2020 | $384.7m (4.4%) | $-1.2k (-14.3%) | $77.8m (155.8%) | -0.0% (-9.5%) | $-1.05 (-128.3%) |
| 2021 | $694.3m (80.4%) | $-11.9k (-900.0%) | $-38.0m (-148.8%) | -0.0% (-454.2%) | $-0.31 (70.5%) |
| 2022 | $1.0b (44.6%) | $80.4k (773.8%) | $-3.4m (91.0%) | 0.0% (566.0%) | $0.00 (100.0%) |
| 2023 | $1.3b (25.3%) | $-186.6k (-332.3%) | $334.1m (9834.7%) | -0.0% (-285.4%) | $0.01 |
| 2024 | $1.7b (33.2%) | $-528.9k (-183.4%) | $440.0m (31.7%) | -0.0% (-112.7%) | $0.02 (100.0%) |
| 2025 | $1.9b (11.1%) | $-4.1m (-673.8%) | $681.9m (55.0%) | -0.2% (-596.3%) | $0.03 (50.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.