Discounted Cash Flow
Yiren Digital Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $69.5m | $24.0m | $44.7m | 34.5% | $1.36 |
| 2017 | $127.0m (82.7%) | $31.4m (31.1%) | $60.6m (35.5%) | 24.7% (-28.2%) | $1.75 (28.7%) |
| 2018 | $121.9m (-4.0%) | $21.0m (-33.3%) | $-18.9m (-131.2%) | 17.2% (-30.5%) | $1.15 (-34.3%) |
| 2019 | $184.5m (51.4%) | $24.7m (18.1%) | $4.8m (125.6%) | 13.4% (-22.0%) | $0.90 (-22.1%) |
| 2020 | $90.5m (-50.9%) | $-15.8m (-164.0%) | $6.1m (26.6%) | -17.5% (-230.4%) | $-0.59 (-165.7%) |
| 2021 | $104.8m (15.7%) | $24.2m (252.7%) | $3.5m (-43.2%) | 23.1% (231.9%) | $0.96 (262.9%) |
| 2022 | $74.2m (-29.1%) | $25.8m (6.9%) | $25.8m (642.0%) | 34.8% (50.8%) | $0.99 (3.4%) |
| 2023 | $102.8m (38.5%) | $43.7m (69.1%) | $323.6m (1152.8%) | 42.5% (22.1%) | $1.66 (67.2%) |
| 2024 | $118.6m (15.4%) | $32.3m (-26.0%) | $212.1m (-34.4%) | 27.3% (-35.9%) | $1.25 (-24.5%) |
| 2025 | $852.6m (619.0%) | $1.2m (-96.4%) | $104.3m (-50.8%) | 0.1% (-99.5%) | $0.04 (-96.4%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.