Discounted Cash Flow
Yatsen Holding Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | $110.8m | $-6.0m | $-14.4m | -5.4% | $-0.17 |
| 2019 | $452.0m (308.0%) | $11.2m (287.8%) | $-16.8m (-16.6%) | 2.5% (146.0%) | $-0.10 (41.2%) |
| 2020 | $119.6m (-73.5%) | $-90.7k (-100.8%) | $-151.8m (-804.7%) | -0.1% (-103.0%) | $-0.73 (-630.0%) |
| 2021 | $136.6m (14.3%) | $-940.0k (-936.8%) | $-155.5m (-2.4%) | -0.7% (-807.4%) | $-0.10 (86.3%) |
| 2022 | $80.1m (-41.4%) | $-889.0k (5.4%) | $-889.0k (99.4%) | -1.1% (-61.3%) | $-0.05 (50.0%) |
| 2023 | $509.2m (535.5%) | $-811.0k (8.8%) | $-16.9m (-1805.2%) | -0.2% (85.6%) | $-0.05 (0.0%) |
| 2024 | $506.0m (-0.6%) | $-305.2k (62.4%) | $-37.4m (-120.9%) | -0.1% (62.1%) | $-0.05 (0.0%) |
| 2025 | $640.9m (26.7%) | $-1.7m (-464.0%) | $-15.0m (59.9%) | -0.3% (-345.3%) | $-0.01 (80.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.