Discounted Cash Flow
Zepp Health Corp. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $232.1m | $3.6m | $1.0m | 1.5% | $-0.22 |
| 2017 | $47.0m (-79.8%) | $3.8m (7.6%) | $35.0m (3261.5%) | 8.2% (431.9%) | $0.10 (145.5%) |
| 2018 | $79.1m (68.4%) | $7.4m (91.9%) | $7.4m (-79.0%) | 9.3% (14.0%) | $0.08 (-20.0%) |
| 2019 | $124.5m (57.5%) | $12.3m (67.1%) | $63.1m (755.4%) | 9.9% (6.1%) | $0.34 (325.0%) |
| 2020 | $147.0m (18.1%) | $5.2m (-57.6%) | $21.5m (-65.8%) | 3.6% (-64.1%) | $0.14 (-58.8%) |
| 2021 | $146.2m (-0.5%) | $3.2m (-38.3%) | $3.2m (-85.0%) | 2.2% (-38.0%) | $0.09 (-35.7%) |
| 2022 | $89.6m (-38.8%) | $-6.2m (-293.3%) | $-6.2m (-293.3%) | -7.0% (-415.6%) | $-0.17 (-288.9%) |
| 2023 | $52.4m (-41.5%) | $-4.5m (28.5%) | $44.3m (810.7%) | -8.5% (-22.2%) | $-0.12 (29.4%) |
| 2024 | $27.2m (-48.0%) | $-11.3m (-153.5%) | $-3.8m (-108.7%) | -41.5% (-387.9%) | $-0.29 (-141.7%) |
| 2025 | $38.6m (41.8%) | $-6.0m (47.1%) | $-3.9m (-1.6%) | -15.5% (62.7%) | $-0.16 (44.8%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.