Discounted Cash Flow
Zhihu Inc. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | $4.3m | $-213.4m | $-107.4m | -4991.5% | $-22.99 |
| 2020 | $201.6m (4616.6%) | $-178.7m (16.3%) | $-36.7m (65.8%) | -88.6% (98.2%) | $-18.36 (20.1%) |
| 2021 | $69.2m (-65.7%) | $-219.1m (-22.6%) | $-65.8m (-79.2%) | -316.4% (-257.1%) | $-0.96 (94.8%) |
| 2022 | $77.9m (12.6%) | $-235.8m (-7.6%) | $-166.3m (-152.6%) | -302.5% (4.4%) | $-0.75 (21.9%) |
| 2023 | $88.2m (13.2%) | $-125.8m (46.6%) | $-62.1m (62.6%) | -142.7% (52.8%) | $-0.40 (46.7%) |
| 2024 | $73.5m (-16.6%) | $-25.6m (79.6%) | $-41.8m (32.7%) | -34.8% (75.6%) | $-0.09 (77.5%) |
| 2025 | $58.6m (-20.3%) | $-28.8m (-12.3%) | $-54.2m (-29.7%) | -49.1% (-40.8%) | $-0.11 (-22.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.