Discounted Cash Flow
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $210.2m | $44.1m | $11.8m | 21.0% | $0.42 |
| 2017 | $299.3m (42.4%) | $72.4m (64.2%) | $24.3m (105.2%) | 24.2% (15.3%) | $0.68 (61.9%) |
| 2018 | $381.8m (27.6%) | $95.1m (31.3%) | $23.4m (-3.4%) | 24.9% (2.9%) | $0.85 (25.0%) |
| 2019 | $473.6m (24.0%) | $121.5m (27.9%) | $35.7m (52.5%) | 25.7% (3.1%) | $1.04 (22.4%) |
| 2020 | $576.2m (21.7%) | $98.5m (-18.9%) | $-52.3m (-246.2%) | 17.1% (-33.4%) | $0.83 (-20.2%) |
| 2021 | $711.5m (23.5%) | $111.3m (12.9%) | $-26.7m (48.9%) | 15.6% (-8.6%) | $0.91 (9.6%) |
| 2022 | $764.8m (7.5%) | $147.2m (32.3%) | $147.2m (651.7%) | 19.2% (23.1%) | $1.22 (34.1%) |
| 2023 | $806.9m (5.5%) | $183.7m (24.8%) | $183.7m (24.8%) | 22.8% (18.3%) | $1.53 (25.4%) |
| 2024 | $904.6m (12.1%) | $180.1m (-2.0%) | $1.6b (769.6%) | 19.9% (-12.6%) | $1.50 (-2.0%) |
| 2025 | $1.0b (15.7%) | $193.6m (7.5%) | $1.7b (4.7%) | 18.5% (-7.1%) | $1.63 (8.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.